National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Welders and Related Machine Operators) is part of a larger occupational group called Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades (NOC 726).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment in this occupation dropped significantly while the unemployment rate increased sharply to 17.7% in 2010, which is much higher than the average. The average hourly wage for this occupation increased at a rate similar to the rate for all other occupations. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Metal Forming, Shaping And Erecting Occupations, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 46,725 and 52,751 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that there was surplus labour supply in this occupation, it is expected that the surplus labour supply will continue. In other words, the number of job seekers will be more than sufficient to fill the job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Job openings will arise from both new positions due to economic growth and replacement needs due to retirement. Although the retirement rate is lower than the rate for all occupations, more than 45% of job openings over the projection period will arise from retirements. The low retirement rate in this occupation is due to the fact that workers are generally somewhat younger than the average and retire later than those in other occupations. Consequently, the gap between the average age of workers and the retirement age is greater than the average for all occupations. The number of job openings arising from economic growth will be much higher than over the 2001-2010 period, during which, after the construction industry was stimulated by the building of new housing units, a substantial increase in renovation spending and, more recently, the increase in non-residential construction spending, the construction industry and especially the manufacturing sector were hit hard by the recession. Over the projection period, activities in the construction industry will slow down, primarily as a result of the aging population, and the manufacturing sector will continue to experience difficulties, particularly in the metal and machinery fabricating industry. This will have a negative impact on the number of job openings in metal forming, shaping and erecting trades. With regard to labour supply, the majority of job seekers will come from the school system.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 9% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Welders and Related Machine Operators) is part of a larger group called Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades (NOC 726). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 10% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Welders and Related Machine Operators) is part of a larger group called Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting Trades (NOC 726). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 43%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.