National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Inspectors and Testers, Mineral and Metal Processing) is part of a larger occupational group called Machine Operators and Related Workers in Metal and Mineral Products Processing (NOC 941).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced a significant drop in employment while its unemployment rate, one of the highest for the 140 occupations, increased more quickly than the average to reach 18% in 2010. The average hourly wage for this occupation stagnated over this period. The average hourly wage continued to be the highest of the processing and manufacturing machine operators and assemblers occupations (NOCs 94 and 95). According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Machine Operators And Related Workers In Metal And Mineral Products Processing, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 10,600 and 12,857 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that there was surplus labour supply in this occupation, it is expected that labour supply will exceed labour demand over the projection period. In other words, the number of job seekers will be greater than the number of job openings. Retirements will account for the majority of job openings. The retirement rate in this occupation will be on par with the average for all occupations. Employment growth will be very weak over the coming years, meaning that expansion demand will contribute very little in terms of job openings. Despite everything, this will be an improvement over the ten years prior to the projection period when employment dropped. During this period, job losses in this occupation were observed, especially between 2005 and 2008, as a result of the difficulties in the mineral manufacturing industry and, more specifically, in the iron, steel and aluminum industries. Several metal processing plants closed their doors or laid off workers during this period. The closure of the least productive plants as well as the resuming of economic activity in the United States over the coming years will enable employment to stabilize in these sectors. With regard to labour supply, job seekers will come from both the school system and other occupations. Workers in other occupations will be attracted to this occupation by the highly competitive wages in comparison to other occupations that do not generally require a post-secondary education.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Inspectors and Testers, Mineral and Metal Processing) is part of a larger group called Machine Operators and Related Workers in Metal and Mineral Products Processing (NOC 941). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 49%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.