National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Firefighters) is part of a larger occupational group called Police Officers and Firefighters (NOC 626).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced strong employment growth and the unemployment rate remained very low. The average hourly wage increased at the same rate as for other occupations. Wages are very high compared to other occupations requiring a college diploma. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Police Officers And Fire-Fighters, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 43,262 and 42,034 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that this occupation experienced excess demand, it is expected that excess demand will continue. In other words, there will be insufficient job seekers to fill the job openings in this occupation over the 2011-2020 period. Expansion demand will be weaker over the 2011-2020 period than it was over the previous ten years because the public safety sector will be facing the same budget cuts as other areas of government spending. However, as in the 2001-2010 period, the majority of job openings will arise from replacement needs, and 65% of job openings will be due to retirements. However, even though retirements will account for the majority of available positions, the retirement rate for police officers and firefighters is not much higher than the average for all occupations. Workers in this occupation are relatively young in relation to the average for all occupations, but they retire earlier than other occupations. Given the nature of the occupation, the vast majority of job seekers will come from the school system.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Firefighters) is part of a larger group called Police Officers and Firefighters (NOC 626). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 76%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.