National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Program Officers Unique to Government) is part of a larger occupational group called Policy and Program Officers, Researchers and Consultants (NOC 416).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment growth in this occupation was strong and the unemployment rate remained stable and very low (2.4% in 2010). According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Policy And Program Officers, Researchers And Consultants, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 85,229 and 100,407 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that there was a shortage of labour supply in this occupation, it is expected that the number of job seekers will remain insufficient to fill job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Although employment growth will remain relatively high over the projection period, it will slow down significantly compared to the strong growth recorded in recent years. One of the main reasons for this slowdown is the budget freezes or cuts put in place by the federal government and some of the provincial governments. The slowdown will, however, be partially offset by the increase in the need to replace workers who retire. With regard to labour supply, the number of school leavers, who represent the vast majority of the job seekers, and immigrants will continue to increase; however, mobility will be more limited because fewer workers from other occupations will be attracted to this occupation as a result of the deterioration of its labour market conditions.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Program Officers Unique to Government) is part of a larger group called Policy and Program Officers, Researchers and Consultants (NOC 416). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 43%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.