National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Shoe Repairers and Shoemakers) is part of a larger occupational group called Upholsterers, Tailors, Shoe Repairers, Jewellers and Related Occupations (NOC 734).

Table on the demographic profile for your chosen occupation at the national level.

Occupations in this group	Upholsterers (7341)  Tailors, Dressmakers, Furriers and Milliners (7342)  Shoe Repairers and Shoemakers (7343)  Jewellers, Watch Repairers and Related Occupations (7344)
Employment (non-student) in 2010	27,555
Median Age of workers in 2010	48
Average Retirement Age in 2010	63

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced a drop in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate. The average hourly wage remained unchanged and very low. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Upholsterers, Tailors, Shoe Repairers, Jewellers And Related Occupations, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 12,163 and 4,004 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply exceeded demand in this occupation, it is expected that the number of job seekers will not be sufficient to fill job openings over the 2011-2020 period. All job openings will result from retirements. In fact, employment will continue to decline in the coming years, continuing a trend observed since the late 1980s. The retirement rate in this occupation is one of the highest, as the average age of workers is very high. The large number of retirements is therefore due to the small gap between the average age of workers in this occupation and the median retirement age. There will be a number of job losses in this occupation, but they will be fewer than over the 2001-2010 period. The decrease in employment is due to the fact that several occupations in this group are on the decline, namely upholsterers and shoe repairers. Furniture and shoes are more often being produced outside the country, and the drop in the cost of these items, particularly shoes, has led people to replace them rather than have them repaired. In terms of supply, job seekers will come from both the school system and immigration. However, because of the low wages and poor outlook, many workers will leave this occupation to find employment in other occupations, leaving a large share of the new job seekers to fill the positions left vacant.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

Table of job opening projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Openings	%
Expansion Demand	-2,776	-23%
Retirements	13,045	107%
Other Replacement Demand	1,369	11%
Emigration	524	4%
Projected Job Openings	12,163	100%

Table of job seeker projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Seekers	%
School Leavers	7,600	190%
Immigration	3,191	80%
Other	-6,786	-169%
Projected Job Seekers	4,004	100%

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

This table shows the industry sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

Industry / Sector	%
Other services (except public administration)	60.60
Manufacturing	22.60
Retail trade	11.80

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 47% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Shoe Repairers and Shoemakers) is part of a larger group called Upholsterers, Tailors, Shoe Repairers, Jewellers and Related Occupations (NOC 734). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 56% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding the percentage of people in this occupation who are part of a union are not sufficiently reliable to be published.