National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Pulp Mill Machine Operators) is part of a larger occupational group called Machine Operators and Related Workers in Pulp and Paper Production and Wood Processing (NOC 943).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, there was a large decrease in employment in this occupation, while the unemployment rate rose faster than average to 15% in 2010. The average hourly wage remained stable. These labour market indicators suggest that there was a surplus of workers in this occupation. In other words, the number of job seekers exceeded the number of job openings.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Machine Operators And Related Workers In Pulp And Paper Production And Wood Processing, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 11,179 and 21,905 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on these projections and considering the labour surplus in this occupation, it is expected that the surplus will continue over the 2011-2020 period. In other words, the number of job seekers will continue to exceed the number of job openings. Employment in this occupation decreased significantly over the 2001-2010 period, but is expected to remain relatively stable over the projection period. This decrease was the result of the decline in the wood and paper products manufacturing sectors. The wood products industry was affected by the decline in new residential investments in recent years, particularly in the United States, and by increased foreign competition for certain products with little value added. The paper manufacturing industry also suffered as a result of competition from low-cost foreign producers. The increased use of electronic media has also had a marked negative impact on this sector. Although not as significant, growth in these sectors will remain limited over the next few years. Yet a number of workers who are retiring will still need to be replaced, which will create job openings in this occupation. The retirement rate for this occupation will be higher than for all occupations because the difference between the retirement age and the workers' ages is smaller than in other occupations. With regard to the labour supply, job seekers will come mainly from other occupations or from the school system (particularly high school graduates), while immigrants will represent only a small percentage of the supply.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Pulp Mill Machine Operators) is part of a larger group called Machine Operators and Related Workers in Pulp and Paper Production and Wood Processing (NOC 943). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 49%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.