National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks) is part of a larger occupational group called Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks (NOC 642).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment declined slightly in this occupation and the unemployment rate increased. The unemployment rate was relatively high at 9.5% in this occupation in 2010. The average hourly wage, one of the lowest among sales and services occupations, increased at the same rate as all occupations. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Retail Salespersons And Sales Clerks, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 131,283 and 144,946 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that this occupation had a surplus of workers, it is expected that this occupation will continue to have a labour surplus. In other words, the number of job seekers will be greater than the number of job openings over the 2011-2020 period. The number of job openings in this occupation will increase significantly over the projection period, and the majority of them will result from retirements. Although the need to replace retirees will represent a significant source of job openings, the retirement rate for this occupation is expected to be low because retail salespersons and sales clerks tend to be much younger than average and retire later. Although expansion demand is expected to be smaller than replacement demand, it will still be a significant source of job openings. The 2008-2009 recession did not affect consumer spending as significantly as previous recessions and consumers rapidly resumed spending. This will enable the retail sector to resume its growth. The number of job seekers, both school leavers and immigrants, is also expected to increase. In fact, their number will represent twice the number of job openings. Since the skills required in this occupation are less specific than in other occupations, a large number of people who have studied in various fields that have no relation to the retail sector are expected to work in this occupation while they look for employment in occupations that better fit their qualifications and match their career goals. A very large number of workers will therefore leave this occupation for others, which will give a large number of other job seekers the opportunity to find a job as a retail salesperson or sales clerk.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 6% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding self-employment for this group are not sufficiently reliable to be published.

What proportion of people in this occupation work full-time and part-time?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 52% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 60% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks) is part of a larger group called Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks (NOC 642). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 10%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.