National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Meteorologists) is part of a larger occupational group called Physical Science Professionals (NOC 211).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation saw very strong employment growth and a large increase in its average hourly wage. In 2010, the average hourly wage was one of the highest among all occupations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in 2010. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Physical Science Professionals, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 13,708 and 20,824 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that there was a shortage of labour in this occupation, it is expected that labour demand and supply will return to a balanced state over the 2011-2020 period. The majority of job openings will result from retirements. The retirement rate will be similar to the rate for all occupations. Similarly, new job openings will be created at the same rate as for all occupations. However, employment growth is anticipated to be much weaker than was seen during the 2001-2010 period because, since the majority of workers in this occupation hold positions in public administration or in the rubber, plastic and chemical products manufacturing industry, the occupation will be affected by the lacklustre growth in these two fields. The rubber, plastic and chemical products industry was deeply affected by the financial crisis and the rise in energy costs. The budget constraints that various levels of government are currently facing will also limit the creation of new positions for physical science professionals. Geologists, geochemists and geophysicists will, however, benefit from growth in the mining sector as a result of the increase in global demand for raw materials. With regard to labour supply, the majority of job seekers will come from the school system. Immigration will also represent a significant share of the job seekers. This is one of the occupations with the highest proportion of immigrants.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 5% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Meteorologists) is part of a larger group called Physical Science Professionals (NOC 211). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 13% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Meteorologists) is part of a larger group called Physical Science Professionals (NOC 211). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 24%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.