National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Commissioned Police Officers) is part of a larger occupational group called Managers in Protective Service (NOC 064).

Table on the demographic profile for your chosen occupation at the national level.

Occupations in this group	Commissioned Police Officers (0641)  Fire Chiefs and Senior Firefighting Officers (0642)  Commissioned Officers, Armed Forces (0643)
Employment (non-student) in 2010	2,829
Median Age of workers in 2010	48
Average Retirement Age in 2010	59

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced a sharp decline in employment but its unemployment rate decreased slightly. The average hourly wage increased more quickly than the average for all occupations. Moreover, the average hourly wage in this occupation is one of the highest among all the occupations. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation. Since there are fewer than 3,000 workers in this occupation, the results of recent and future conditions are less reliable because the data is subject to significant variations.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Managers In Protective Service, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 2,526 and 1,573 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Considering that there was a balance between labour supply and demand in this occupation, projections indicate that the number of job seekers will be insufficient to fill the job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Most job openings will result from retirements. Given that workers in this occupation are generally older than those in other occupations, the retirement rate in this occupation will be above the average for all occupations. Expansion demand in this occupation will be on par with average employment growth for all occupations over the projection period. With regard to labour supply, given that many years of experience in protective services are generally required to obtain a senior management position, it is not surprising that the vast majority of job seekers will come from other occupations.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

Table of job opening projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Openings	%
Expansion Demand	403	16%
Retirements	1,918	76%
Other Replacement Demand	140	6%
Emigration	65	3%
Projected Job Openings	2,526	100%

Table of job seeker projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Seekers	%
School Leavers	0	0%
Immigration	175	11%
Other	1,398	89%
Projected Job Seekers	1,573	100%

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

This table shows the industry sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

Industry / Sector	%
Public administration	96.00
Transportation and warehousing	3.00

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding the percentage of people in this occupation who are part of a union are not sufficiently reliable to be published.