National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Logging Machinery Operators) is part of a larger occupational group called Logging Machinery Operators (NOC 824).

Table on the demographic profile for your chosen occupation at the national level.

Occupations in this group	Logging Machinery Operators (8241)
Employment (non-student) in 2010	8,205
Median Age of workers in 2010	43
Average Retirement Age in 2010	60

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced one of the largest decreases in employment of all occupations. Its unemployment rate decreased slightly to 19.8% in 2010, but still remained much higher than the average for all occupations (7.6%). Key labour market indicators suggest a significant labour surplus in this occupation. In other words, the number of job seekers clearly exceeded the number of job openings.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Logging Machinery Operators, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 2,948 and 1,762 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Given the labour surplus in this occupation over the 2008-2010 period, projections suggest that the number of job seekers in this occupation will be sufficient to fill the job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Job openings in this occupation will result mainly from replacement demand since employment growth will be weak over the projection period. Expansion demand will nevertheless be greater than it was over the 2001-2010 period. Employment declined during this period because of difficulties encountered by the forestry and forest operations sectors such as the pine beetle infestation in British Columbia and the lumber dispute with the United States. This sector is also facing a decrease in demand for lumber products and a decrease in global demand for newspapers and magazines resulting from the increased use of new technologies such as the Internet. The number of job seekers will also decrease given the poor labour market conditions in recent years, which caused the occupation to become less attractive to both school leavers and immigrants.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

Table of job opening projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Openings	%
Expansion Demand	408	14%
Retirements	2,054	70%
Other Replacement Demand	312	11%
Emigration	173	6%
Projected Job Openings	2,948	100%

Table of job seeker projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Seekers	%
School Leavers	1,573	89%
Immigration	100	6%
Other	89	5%
Projected Job Seekers	1,762	100%

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

This table shows the industry sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

Industry / Sector	%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting	85.50
Manufacturing	9.00

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 15% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding self-employment for this group are not sufficiently reliable to be published.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding the percentage of people in this occupation who are part of a union are not sufficiently reliable to be published.