National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Sheriffs and Bailiffs) is part of a larger occupational group called Other Occupations in Protective Service (NOC 646).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced strong employment growth and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, which was already at a very low level (2.2% in 2010). Although the average hourly wage did not increase a great deal over this period, it remained one of the highest among occupations that did not require a post-secondary education. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Other Occupations In Protective Service, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 10,787 and 12,754 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Projections indicate that although there was excess demand for this occupation in recent years, and even though the excess demand should be reabsorbed by the end of the projection period, this situation is expected to continue for several years. Over this period the vast majority of job openings will be due to retirements despite the fact that workers in this occupation retire later than the average for all occupations. The retirement rate for this occupation is similar to the average for all occupations. As for labour supply, nearly all job seekers will come from the school system.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 24% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding self-employment for this group are not sufficiently reliable to be published.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Sheriffs and Bailiffs) is part of a larger group called Other Occupations in Protective Service (NOC 646). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 73%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.