National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Government Managers – Economic Analysis, Policy Development and Program Administration) is part of a larger occupational group called Managers in Public Administration (NOC 041).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment in this occupation grew more quickly than the average for all occupations, while the unemployment rate dropped to 0.6% in 2010. The average hourly wage increased more quickly than the average for all occupations and is among the highest for all occupations. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Managers In Public Administration, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 17,992 and 19,109 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that this occupation displayed signs of shortage, it is expected that the number of job seekers will remain insufficient to fill job openings over the 2010-2020 period. Retirements will be the primary source of job openings. The retirement rate will be higher than the average for all occupations because workers in this occupation are generally much older and retire slightly earlier than those in other occupations. Over the projection period, the retirement rate in this occupation will be one of the highest among all the occupations. Job openings resulting from expansion demand will be relatively few and fewer in number than over the 2001-2010 period. In fact, after seeing fairly rapid employment growth in recent years due to an increase in government spending, employment will be limited by budget constraints by various orders of government in the coming years. With regard to labour supply, given that many years of experience are required to obtain a senior management position, it is not surprising that a large number of job seekers will come from other occupations. Less than 20% of job seekers will come from the school system.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Government Managers - Economic Analysis, Policy Development and Program Administration) is part of a larger group called Managers in Public Administration (NOC 041). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 54%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.