National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Specialist Physicians) is part of a larger occupational group called Physicians, Dentists and Veterinarians (NOC 311).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment in this occupation grew and the unemployment rate remained virtually unchanged. The unemployment rate was very low, only 0.6% in 2010. The hourly wage, which was already very high, continued to increase more quickly than the average over this period. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Physicians, Dentists And Veterinarians, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 57,594 and 46,566 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering the recent labour shortage in this occupation, it is expected that the number of job seekers will be insufficient to fill the job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Job openings will result from both expansion demand and replacement needs. In fact, because the Canadian population is aging, the demand for health services and consequently the need for health care professionals will increase greatly. Employment growth for physicians, dentists and veterinarians will be one of the highest among all occupations. The retirement rate for this occupational group will also be high, given that these workers tend to be older than average. On the other hand, the knowledge required to work in this occupational group is so highly specialized that immigration and mobility cannot compensate for the increase in labour demand. Hence, school leavers will be the main source of job seekers. A substantial increase in the number of school leavers is needed to fill the gap between labour demand and supply created by the current and future shortage of workers. However, training a physician takes a long time, which makes it difficult to reduce the shortage in the short term.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 50% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Specialist Physicians) is part of a larger group called Physicians, Dentists and Veterinarians (NOC 311). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 69% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 40% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Specialist Physicians) is part of a larger group called Physicians, Dentists and Veterinarians (NOC 311). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 45%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.