National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Railway and Motor Transport Labourers) is part of a larger occupational group called Public Works and Other Labourers, n.e.c. (NOC 762).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced a significant decrease in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate, which remained high in comparison to the rate for all occupations (15.6% compared to 7.6% in 2010). The average hourly wage for this occupation increased at the same rate as for all of the economy. According to the key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Public Works And Other Labourers, N.E.C., over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 7,243 and 6,012 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply exceeded demand in this occupation, it is expected that there will continue to be more job seekers than job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Despite a retirement rate comparable to the average for all occupations, most job openings will arise from replacement needs due to retirement. The number of job openings resulting from economic growth will be slightly higher than over the 2001-2010 period. However, job growth will remain weak compared to other occupations given the expected decrease in spending by municipalities and other levels of government as they deal with major deficits. In terms of supply, the majority of job seekers will come from the school system.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 2% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding self-employment for this group are not sufficiently reliable to be published.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Railway and Motor Transport Labourers) is part of a larger group called Public Works and Other Labourers, n.e.c. (NOC 762). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 59%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.