National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Truck Drivers) is part of a larger occupational group called Motor Vehicle and Transit Drivers (NOC 741).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment growth was weak in this occupation and the unemployment rate increased slightly. In 2010, the unemployment rate was 8.3%, which was slightly higher than for all occupations (7.6%). However, the average hourly wage increased at the same rate as for all occupations. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Motor Vehicle And Transit Drivers, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 177,017 and 174,260 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that the labour supply and demand in this occupation were balanced, it is expected that the number of job seekers and job openings will remain balanced over the 2011-2020 period. Given that the transportation sector is directly related to the performance of the economy as a whole, employment growth will be similar to that for all occupations. In fact, as consumer spending and commercial trade recover from the recent recession, employment growth in the transportation industry is expected to return to its pre-recession rate. Over the projection period, employment growth in this occupation will be stronger than over the 2001-2010 period because of the increase in economic activity and its impact on the construction and manufacturing sectors. The number of job openings will remain high as a result of a large number of retirements. The retirement rate in this occupation will be comparable to the average retirement rate for all occupations because, although workers in this occupation are older than the average for all occupations, they tend to retire later. With regard to the labour supply, the majority of job seekers will come from other occupations. School leavers and new immigrants will also account for an appreciable percentage of the job seekers.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 18% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Truck Drivers) is part of a larger group called Motor Vehicle and Transit Drivers (NOC 741). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 22% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What proportion of people in this occupation work full-time and part-time?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 94% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 3% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Truck Drivers) is part of a larger group called Motor Vehicle and Transit Drivers (NOC 741). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 29%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.