National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Probation and Parole Officers and Related Occupations) is part of a larger occupational group called Psychologists, Social Workers, Counsellors, Clergy and Probation Officers (NOC 415).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced strong employment growth, continuing a trend observed for more than 20 years. This sustained employment growth is particularly due to the strong demand for social workers. Unemployment in this occupation has remained stable at a fairly low rate (2.4% in 2010). Finally, the increase in the average hourly wage was less than the average for all occupations. Moreover, in comparison to other occupations requiring a university diploma, the wage was not particularly high. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Psychologists, Social Workers, Counsellors, Clergy And Probation Officers, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 77,529 and 68,988 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply and demand in this occupation were balanced, it is expected that the number of job seekers will remain sufficient to fill job openings over the 2011-2020 period. The annual difference between supply and demand is very small, representing only 0.6% of employment in 2010. Job openings will arise from both strong employment growth and from retirement. Positions left vacant due to retirement will nevertheless represent the majority of available jobs. Given that workers in this occupation are generally older than the average but typically retire at the same age as those in other occupations, the retirement rate in this occupation is above the average. Expansion demand will also be a significant source of job openings over this period. In particular, employment growth will continue to result from an increase in demand for social workers (main occupation of NOC 415). These jobs will be created to respond to the needs of the aging population. In terms of supply, job seekers will come primarily from the school system. However, there will be a relatively large number of job seekers from other occupations. The majority of them will have studied social work, psychology or another field related to this occupation, but will have started their career in other occupations such as paralegal, social services worker and occupations in education and religion (NOC 421).

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Probation and Parole Officers and Related Occupations) is part of a larger group called Psychologists, Social Workers, Counsellors, Clergy and Probation Officers (NOC 415). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 53%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.