National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Primary Production Managers (Except Agriculture)) is part of a larger occupational group called Managers in Primary Production (Except Agriculture) (NOC 081).

Table on the demographic profile for your chosen occupation at the national level.

Occupations in this group	Primary Production Managers (Except Agriculture) (0811)
Employment (non-student) in 2010	9,548
Median Age of workers in 2010	46
Average Retirement Age in 2010	60

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment in this occupation experienced solid growth, but its unemployment rate also increased to 4.0% in 2010. The average hourly wage increased at a rate on par with other occupations. It remains one of the highest among all the occupations. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Managers In Primary Production (Except Agriculture), over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 6,511 and 7,071 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply and demand in this occupation were balanced, there will continue to be a sufficient number of job seekers to fill the job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Retirements will account for just under one half of all job openings. The retirement rate in this occupation will be slightly above the average for all occupations, mainly because workers are older than those in other occupations. Job openings resulting from expansion demand will be distinctly fewer in number than over the 2001-2010 period. Growth, which was very strong in the oil and gas extraction sector and the mining sector and in related activities, will slow down over the 2011-2020 period. The global recession of 2008-2009 is primarily responsible for this slowdown, as the decline in economic activity reduced the short-term demand for oil. Moreover, significant growth in the extraction of oil from the oil sands and a decline in conventional oil production will result in a strong increase in productivity and, therefore, decreased labour demand. With regard to labour supply, the vast majority of job seekers will come from other occupations in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the mining sector. It is not surprising that mobility will be the main source of labour, given that strong skills and solid experience in this field are required to obtain a position as a manager in primary production.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

Table of job opening projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Openings	%
Expansion Demand	3,307	51%
Retirements	2,558	39%
Other Replacement Demand	401	6%
Emigration	245	4%
Projected Job Openings	6,511	100%

Table of job seeker projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Seekers	%
School Leavers	1,240	18%
Immigration	375	5%
Other	5,455	77%
Projected Job Seekers	7,071	100%

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

This table shows the industry sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

Industry / Sector	%
Mining and oil and gas extraction	62.00
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting	16.00
Manufacturing	7.00
Professional, scientific and technical services	4.00
Wholesale trade	3.00

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 20% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding self-employment for this group are not sufficiently reliable to be published.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding the percentage of people in this occupation who are part of a union are not sufficiently reliable to be published.