National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Cabinetmakers) is part of a larger occupational group called Carpenters and Cabinetmakers (NOC 727).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced stagnation in employment and a sharp increase in the unemployment rate to 15.1% in 2010. The average hourly wage increased less quickly than the average for all occupations and remained very low in comparison to wages for other trades. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Carpenters And Cabinetmakers, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 42,047 and 63,724 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that there was a surplus of labour in this occupation, it is expected that the excess supply will continue over the 2011-2020 period: there will be more job seekers than job openings. Approximately half of job openings will be due to retirements. However, since workers in this occupation are younger than in other occupations, the retirement rate will be low, which will limit the number of job openings. Approximately 40% of job openings will result from economic growth. After experiencing strong employment growth during the 2001-2010 period, this occupation will face more modest growth over the projection period. The recent recession considerably reduced activity in residential construction, which affected the demand for carpenters and cabinetmakers. Recovery in the residential construction sector, although modest, will make it possible for employment growth to resume. However, employment growth will be weaker than in the past because of the slowdown in residential construction caused by the aging population, which means slower demographic growth, less debt, and lower interest rates over the projection period. The main sources of job seekers in this occupation will be school leavers and immigrants. Workers coming from other occupations will no longer be a source of job seekers, as was the case before the recession, because the deterioration of job prospects will make this occupation less attractive. In fact, a number of workers will leave this occupation for others. In contrast, the number of school leavers will be higher than in the 2001-2010 period as a result of increased enrolment in carpentry and cabinetmaking programs. The increase in enrolments is due to the increased demand for workers in the construction industry in recent years.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 28% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Cabinetmakers) is part of a larger group called Carpenters and Cabinetmakers (NOC 727). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 24% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Cabinetmakers) is part of a larger group called Carpenters and Cabinetmakers (NOC 727). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 32%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.