National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Forging Machine Operators) is part of a larger occupational group called Machining, Metalworking, Woodworking and Related Machine Operators (NOC 951).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, job losses in this occupation were high, resulting in a significant increase in the unemployment rate, which rose to 19.3% in 2010. The average hourly wage remained stable and low. This suggests that there was a surplus of workers in this occupation. In other words, the number of job seekers exceeded the number of job openings. Although this precarious situation is in large part due to the 2008-2009 recession, which greatly affected the manufacturing sector, the decline in employment in this occupation actually started well before the recession.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Machining, Metalworking, Woodworking And Related Machine Operators, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 32,120 and 53,994 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering the surplus of workers in this occupation, it is expected that the labour surplus will continue over the 2011-2020 period. In other words, the number of job seekers will continue to exceed the number of job openings. Employment growth is expected to be relatively weak over this period. However, this will be an improvement over the job losses recorded over the 2001-2010 period. In addition to the impact of the recent recession, the weak employment outlook can be explained by productivity gains as the industry becomes more capital intensive. In the automotive sector, the outlook can be explained by buyer preference for vehicles built abroad. Retirements will be the main source of job openings in this occupation, but the retirement rate will nevertheless be on par with the average for all occupations. The main source of job seekers will be workers from other occupations, followed by school leavers (especially high school graduates and people who have not completed high school). They will be attracted to this occupation by the wages, which are high for the level of skill required. Immigrants will also represent a significant proportion of job seekers since this occupation is particularly popular among new immigrants entering the Canadian labour market.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Forging Machine Operators) is part of a larger group called Machining, Metalworking, Woodworking and Related Machine Operators (NOC 951). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 29%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.