National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Chain Saw and Skidder Operators) is part of a larger occupational group called Logging and Forestry Workers (NOC 842).

Table on the demographic profile for your chosen occupation at the national level.

Occupations in this group	Chain Saw and Skidder Operators (8421)  Silviculture and Forestry Workers (8422)
Employment (non-student) in 2010	11,307
Median Age of workers in 2010	44
Average Retirement Age in 2010	60

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment in this occupation stagnated while the unemployment rate increased more quickly than for other occupations to 28.6% in 2010. The average hourly wage for this occupation remained stable over this period. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Logging And Forestry Workers, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 4,358 and 3,176 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply in this occupation exceeded demand, it is expected that there will be excess supply in this occupation. In other words, the number of job seekers will be more than sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation over the 2011-2020 period. Job openings will arise mainly from retirements. In fact, this occupation will see a retirement rate higher than the average for all occupations, as workers are generally older than those in other occupations. Although job openings will be practically non-existent over the projection period, they will be greater than openings over the 2001-2010 period. During that period, the forestry industry was affected by numerous events such as the lumber dispute with the United States (resolved by the agreement of 2006), the pine beetle infestation in British Columbia that destroyed a large number of Murray pines, the decline in demand for newsprint in North America, and the increase in foreign competition. More recently, the real estate crisis in the United States and the 2008-2009 recession also had a negative impact on the forest industry. The intense restructuring that took place after all these events will enable the forestry sector to slow down its decline in the coming years, meaning that employment will stabilize for logging workers over the projection period. With regard to labour supply, the majority of job seekers will come from the school system.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

Table of job opening projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Openings	%
Expansion Demand	164	4%
Retirements	3,440	79%
Other Replacement Demand	525	12%
Emigration	229	5%
Projected Job Openings	4,358	100%

Table of job seeker projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Seekers	%
School Leavers	2,428	76%
Immigration	513	16%
Other	235	7%
Projected Job Seekers	3,176	100%

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

This table shows the industry sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

Industry / Sector	%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting	79.90
Manufacturing	10.20

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 26% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Chain Saw and Skidder Operators) is part of a larger group called Logging and Forestry Workers (NOC 842). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 37% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding the percentage of people in this occupation who are part of a union are not sufficiently reliable to be published.