National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Farmers and Farm Managers) is part of a larger occupational group called Contractors, Operators and Supervisors in Agriculture, Horticulture and Aquaculture (NOC 825).

Table on the demographic profile for your chosen occupation at the national level.

Occupations in this group	Farmers and Farm Managers (8251)  Agricultural and Related Service Contractors and Managers (8252)  Farm Supervisors and Specialized Livestock Workers (8253)  Nursery and Greenhouse Operators and Managers (8254)  Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance Contractors and Managers (8255)  Supervisors, Landscape and Horticulture (8256)  Aquaculture Operators and Managers (8257)
Employment (non-student) in 2010	228,255
Median Age of workers in 2010	49
Average Retirement Age in 2010	68

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment in this occupation decreased and wages increased slightly. The unemployment rate was very low during this period; however, the unemployment rate is not a good indicator in this case since most workers in this occupation are self-employed. The key labour market indicators suggest that the number of workers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Contractors, Operators And Supervisors In Agriculture, Horticulture And Aquaculture, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 89,886 and 55,808 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Although labour supply and demand were balanced over the 2008-2010 period, the projections suggest that the number of job seekers will not be sufficient to fill all the job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Job openings in this occupation will result mainly from the high number of retirements. The retirement rate in this occupation will be high. Although the average age of workers in the agricultural sector is among the highest of all occupations, these workers generally retire much later. Expansion demand will be a limited source of job openings over the projection period, but positions will not be eliminated as was the case during the 2001-2010 period. In fact, the agricultural sector has faced several problems and changes in recent years, in particular, the industrialization of agricultural production (which has led to the loss of several family farms), a number of droughts and mad cow disease (which led to an embargo on the exporting of Canadian cattle). The combination of these events led to a decline in employment. However, the major upheavals and problems of the past fifteen years are not expected to have a notable impact over the projection period. In terms of supply, job seekers will come primarily from the school system and other occupations. The large investment needed to purchase a farm and farming equipment constitutes a major barrier to entry into this occupation. This is a very demanding occupation that is not within everyone's reach.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

Table of job opening projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Openings	%
Expansion Demand	8,025	9%
Retirements	62,596	70%
Other Replacement Demand	14,357	16%
Emigration	4,907	5%
Projected Job Openings	89,886	100%

Table of job seeker projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.

Category	Seekers	%
School Leavers	25,103	45%
Immigration	4,880	9%
Other	25,825	46%
Projected Job Seekers	55,808	100%

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

This table shows the industry sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

Industry / Sector	%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting	96.50

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 77% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Farmers and Farm Managers) is part of a larger group called Contractors, Operators and Supervisors in Agriculture, Horticulture and Aquaculture (NOC 825). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 91% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What proportion of people in this occupation work full-time and part-time?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 86% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 23% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding the percentage of people in this occupation who are part of a union are not sufficiently reliable to be published.