National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Personnel Clerks) is part of a larger occupational group called Administrative Support Clerks (NOC 144).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment in this occupation dropped sharply and the unemployment rate increased at the same pace as for all occupations. The hourly wage also increased at the same rate as for all occupations. Key labour market indicators show that the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill all job openings.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Administrative Support Clerks, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 102,704 and 61,755 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections, which show that job openings will not exceed job seekers in any significant way, and considering that labour supply and demand in this occupation were balanced over the 2008-2010 period, the labour market for this occupation is expected to remain balanced over the 2011-2020 period. Approximately 62% of job openings will result from replacement needs due to retirement and 26% from expansion demand. The retirement rate for this occupation will be high over the projection period, exceeding the average retirement rate for all occupations. The significant number of retirements over the next few years is due to the fact that workers in this occupation are slightly older than the average for all occupations. Employment growth from economic activity (expansion demand) will be relatively strong over the projection period in comparison with other occupations. With regard to labour supply, school leavers will account for almost all job seekers over the 2011-2020 period.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 1% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding self-employment for this group are not sufficiently reliable to be published.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Personnel Clerks) is part of a larger group called Administrative Support Clerks (NOC 144). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 42%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.