National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Motor Vehicle Assemblers, Inspectors and Testers) is part of a larger occupational group called Mechanical, Electrical and Electronics Assemblers (NOC 948).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, the employment losses seen in this occupation since 2000 continued. The unemployment rate rose to 16% in 2010. The average hourly wage remained practically unchanged. It is one of the highest among occupations in the manufacturing sector that require only a secondary school education. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers in this occupation was more than sufficient to fill job openings.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Mechanical, Electrical And Electronics Assemblers, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 43,028 and 54,861 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply in this occupation exceeded demand, it is expected that the number of job seekers will remain greater than the number of job openings over the 2011-2020 period. The majority of job openings will arise from retirements. The retirement rate will be above the average for all occupations as workers in this occupation are older than the average and generally retire earlier. Job openings resulting from expansion demand will account for approximately one quarter of openings over the projection period. This will be an improvement over the 2001-2010 period when employment in this occupation dropped sharply. Given that a large number of workers in this occupation work in the automotive sector, the restructuring of the main North American manufacturers resulted in major layoffs. Among the factors that forced the industry to restructure are the loss of market share, overproduction (large increase in stock) and the ongoing increase in fuel costs to unprecedented levels, which led consumers to choose more eco-friendly cars. Moreover, the generous retirement and health insurance plans from which unionized workers in the Big Three benefit resulted in increased fixed labour costs and limited the capacities of automotive manufacturers in Detroit to overcome the difficulties with which they were faced. Consequently, the Big Three launched substantial restructuring programs, closed several plants and cut many jobs in order to increase their competitive capacity and win back their market share. Moreover, there are many workers in this occupation in the electronic and airplane manufacturing industries, two sectors that have also experienced difficulties since 2000. In terms of supply, job seekers will come from the school system, immigration and other occupations. The fact that wages and benefits are very competitive and that the specific training required is generally offered on the job attracts many job seekers.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 19% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Motor Vehicle Assemblers, Inspectors and Testers) is part of a larger group called Mechanical, Electrical and Electronics Assemblers (NOC 948). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 43%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.