National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Nursery and Greenhouse Workers) is part of a larger occupational group called Agriculture and Horticulture Workers (NOC 843).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment in this occupation decreased and the unemployment rate, which was very high, increased. Although wages increased, they still remained lower than the average for all occupations. The key labour market indicators suggest a surplus of workers in this occupation. In other words, the number of job seekers was greater than the number of job openings.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Agriculture And Horticulture Workers, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 14,463 and 28,710 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on these projections and considering the labour surplus in this occupation, the surplus of workers is expected to continue over the 2011-2020 period. The number of job openings will be low over the projection period, but this occupation is not expected to face job cuts as was the case over the 2001-2010 period. Job openings will result mainly from retirements although the retirement rate is lower than the average for all occupations. The majority of job seekers will come from the school system and to a lesser extent, immigration. Occupational mobility will remain highly negative (workers will leave for other occupations) over the projection period. This negative mobility can be explained by the low wages and high unemployment rate, which make this occupation less attractive than other alternatives.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 7% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Nursery and Greenhouse Workers) is part of a larger group called Agriculture and Horticulture Workers (NOC 843). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 10% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What proportion of people in this occupation work full-time and part-time?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 73% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 47% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Nursery and Greenhouse Workers) is part of a larger group called Agriculture and Horticulture Workers (NOC 843). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 6%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.