National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Railway and Yard Locomotive Engineers) is part of a larger occupational group called Train Crew Operating Occupations (NOC 736).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced a significant drop in employment and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which nevertheless remained very low (3.1% in 2010). The average hourly wage increased over this period, but less rapidly than the average for all occupations. The wage is nevertheless very high in comparison to other trade and transport occupations. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Train Crew Operating Occupations, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 2,344 and 3,213 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply slightly exceeded demand in this occupation, it is expected that the number of job seekers will be more than sufficient to fill job openings over the 2011-2020 period. All job openings will arise from replacement needs, more specifically those due to retirements. The retirement rate will be on par with the rate for all occupations. Job openings arising from economic growth will be practically non-existent over the projection period, similar to the 2001-2010 period. Because of the difficulties experienced in the manufacturing sector, which are expected to continue in the coming years, and due to the 2008-2009 recession, demand in the rail transport field will continue to drop, thus limiting the need to create new positions. The latest technological advances in telecommunications and automation will also reduce the number of workers needed in this occupation. In terms of supply, nearly all job seekers will come directly from the school system.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Railway and Yard Locomotive Engineers) is part of a larger group called Train Crew Operating Occupations (NOC 736). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 90%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.