National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Computer Programmers and Interactive Media Developers) is part of a larger occupational group called Computer and Information Systems Professionals (NOC 217).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, employment growth in this occupation was strong. The unemployment rate increased more quickly than for all occupations but still remained below 5% in 2010. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill all job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Computer and Information Systems Professionals, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 152,836 and 210,662 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Although labour supply and demand in this occupation were recently balanced, projections indicate that the number of job seekers will be greater than the job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Job openings will mainly result from expansion demand. The majority of workers in this occupation are young so the need to replace workers who are retiring will be very small compared to the average. Although employment growth in this occupation will not reach the level of the 1990s, it will be one of the strongest over the projection period. This is because computer technology is now an integral part of the economy, which in general is increasingly knowledge-based. However, changes in technology that facilitate remote communication will increase competition in this industry since they will make it possible for Canadian companies to outsource information and communications technologies and development services to lower-cost countries. Although labour demand will be high, the number of job seekers is expected to be even higher. In fact, the number of computer science school leavers will continue to be high since this field of study continues to be very popular with young people. Immigration will also be an important source of job seekers since computer-related jobs remain one of the most attractive high-skilled occupations for immigrants, given that skills and knowledge acquired abroad in this field are easily transferable to Canada. Therefore, in spite of very strong growth in employment, the low replacement needs and the increase in the number of computer science graduates and immigrants will mean a surplus of workers in this occupation.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 11% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Computer Programmers and Interactive Media Developers) is part of a larger group called Computer and Information Systems Professionals (NOC 217). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 19% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What proportion of people in this occupation work full-time and part-time?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 96% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 17% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Computer Programmers and Interactive Media Developers) is part of a larger group called Computer and Information Systems Professionals (NOC 217). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 20%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.