National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Cashiers) is part of a larger occupational group called Cashiers (NOC 661).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced an increase in employment, but its unemployment rate also increased, remaining high at 11% in 2010. The average hourly wage, the lowest for all occupations, increased more than the average for other occupations. The reason for this increase in the hourly wage was more because of an increase in minimum wage in several provinces than in reaction to labour market pressure. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was more than sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Cashiers, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 71,048 and 63,401 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering the current labour surplus, it is expected that the labour surplus will continue. In other words, the number of job seekers will continue to exceed the number of job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Job openings will result from both employment growth and retirements. However, since a large portion of workers in this occupation are young, the retirement rate will be among the lowest for all occupations. Employment growth will be a significant source of job openings. The 2008-2009 recession did not affect consumer spending as much as previous recessions and consumers rapidly resumed their spending. School leavers will be the main source of job seekers. In fact, over the 2010-2020 period, the number of school leavers will be very large. Since the skills required in this occupation are acquired on the job, a large number of people choose to work in this occupation while they look for employment in occupations that better match their career goals. As a result, over the coming years, a number of workers will leave this occupation for others, which will compensate in part for the large number of school leavers entering.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 1% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding self-employment for this group are not sufficiently reliable to be published.

What proportion of people in this occupation work full-time and part-time?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 36% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 84% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Cashiers) is part of a larger group called Cashiers (NOC 661). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 18%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.