National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Hide and Pelt Processing Workers) is part of a larger occupational group called Machine Operators and Related Workers in Fabric, Fur and Leather Products Manufacturing (NOC 945).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced a substantial drop in employment. The unemployment rate increased to a little over 20% in 2010, which is much higher than the average for all occupations (7.6%). The average hourly wage rose slightly more quickly than the average for all occupations, but remained very low. This occupation is one of the least well-compensated. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers in this occupation was more than sufficient to fill job openings.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Machine Operators And Related Workers In Fabric, Fur And Leather, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 1,363 and 12,215 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply in this occupation exceeded demand, it is expected that there will be a labour surplus over the 2011-2020 period. In other words, the number of job seekers will be greater than the number of job openings. Because of very negative expansion demand, replacement needs will represent all job openings over the projection period. The retirement rate will be above the occupational average, as workers in this occupation are generally much older than those in other occupations. With respect to expansion demand, the job losses observed for several years will continue over the projection period, but at a slower rate than over the 2001-2010 period. In fact, during that period, the clothing industry experienced very strong foreign competition, particularly from countries where labour costs are low. This competition was exacerbated by a decrease in trade barriers, the appreciation of the Canadian dollar and the 2008-2009 recession. All of these factors led to the elimination of several positions in this occupation. Over the projection period, the drop in employment will be slightly less substantial as businesses most exposed to foreign competition will have closed their doors and others will make changes by investing in machinery and equipment designed to increase productivity or by turning toward more specialized products with greater added value. In terms of supply, the majority of job seekers will be immigrants. The proportion of immigrants working in this occupation is among the highest for all occupations. School leavers will make up an appreciable share of the job seekers over the projection period since 20% of job seekers are expected to come directly from the school system.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 17% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The data from the Labour Force Survey (2009) regarding self-employment for this group are not sufficiently reliable to be published.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Hide and Pelt Processing Workers) is part of a larger group called Machine Operators and Related Workers in Fabric, Fur and Leather Products Manufacturing (NOC 945). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 19%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.