National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Lawyers and Quebec Notaries) is part of a larger occupational group called Judges, Lawyers and Quebec Notaries (NOC 411).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced strong employment growth while its unemployment rate, one of the lowest for all occupations, increased slightly. The average hourly wage for this occupation, one of the highest of the 140 occupations, increased at a rate similar to the rate for other occupations. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Judges, Lawyers And Quebec Notaries, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 32,351 and 27,743 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that there was a shortage of labour in this occupation, the number of job seekers is expected to continue to be insufficient to fill the job openings over the 2011-2020 period. The shortage of workers will, however, be small. The main reason for labour market pressure in this occupation in the future is the increased need for new workers to replace those who are retiring. The workers in this occupation are, on average, much older than in other occupations, but they retire much later so that the retirement rate is similar to the average for all occupations. However, expansion demand will be much weaker than over the 2001-2010 period. During that period, this occupation, like the majority of occupations in professional business services, was supported by the strong performance of the national economy. However, economic growth in Canada will slow down slightly over the next few years, meaning that the demand for professional services will be lower than over the previous ten years. Growth in this sector will still be among the strongest for all the industries. With regard to labour supply, because of the need to have a professional qualification to practise law, the majority of job seekers will come from the school system. Moreover, since the skills required for this occupation are specialized and the employment conditions are favourable, there is little mobility between this occupation and others, and the proportion of recent immigrants in the occupation is low.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 44% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Lawyers and Quebec Notaries) is part of a larger group called Judges, Lawyers and Quebec Notaries (NOC 411). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 47% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What proportion of people in this occupation work full-time and part-time?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 93% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 40% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Lawyers and Quebec Notaries) is part of a larger group called Judges, Lawyers and Quebec Notaries (NOC 411). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 20%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.