National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC’s Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Retail Trade Supervisors) is part of a larger occupational group called Sales and Service Supervisors (NOC 621).

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation saw employment growth, while its unemployment rate increased slightly. The unemployment rate remained relatively low (4.9% in 2010). The average hourly wage in this occupation rose slightly more quickly than the average, but remained very low. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers in this occupation was sufficient to fill job openings.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Sales And Service Supervisors, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 107,828 and 85,663 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply and demand in this occupation were balanced, it is expected that the number of job seekers will remain sufficient to fill job openings over the 2011-2020 period. Job openings will result from both employment growth and retirements. The retirement rate will, however, be low in comparison to other occupations, as workers in this occupation are generally younger and retire later than the average. With regard to job openings arising from expansion demand, employment growth will be higher than the economic average, but there will be a significant drop in the number of jobs created in relation to the 2001-2010 period. In addition to the expected slowdown of economic growth in Canada in the coming years, the increase in Internet shopping and the aging of the population, resulting in a shift in consumption from goods to services, will decrease demand for sales and services supervisors. In terms of supply, job seekers will come primarily from the school system. It must also be noted that some workers will leave this occupation for others over the projection period, as a result of the sometimes difficult employment conditions (evening and weekend work), the low wages and poorer employment outlook. This will be a noticeable change in comparison to the decade preceding the projection period, in which many individuals chose this occupation in order to take advantage of the particularly interesting job opportunities.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.

In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are “self-employed”, according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 2% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Retail Trade Supervisors) is part of a larger group called Sales and Service Supervisors (NOC 621). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 7% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What proportion of people in this occupation work full-time and part-time?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 91% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations.

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 59% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Retail Trade Supervisors) is part of a larger group called Sales and Service Supervisors (NOC 621). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 15%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.